Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 0.013786 0.015611 0.017591 0.019898 0.022515 0.025391 0.028793
2025-06-29 0.010663 0.013120 0.016014 0.019680 0.024204 0.029613 0.036580
2025-07-06 0.008712 0.011340 0.014616 0.019008 0.024750 0.032020 0.041952
2025-07-13 0.007861 0.010717 0.014447 0.019685 0.026870 0.036410 0.050090
2025-07-20 0.007147 0.010142 0.014212 0.020164 0.028675 0.040453 0.058072
2025-07-27 0.006615 0.009729 0.014117 0.020770 0.030644 0.044826 0.066866
2025-08-03 0.005965 0.009062 0.013569 0.020633 0.031478 0.047588 0.073509
2025-08-10 0.005449 0.008530 0.013151 0.020616 0.032444 0.050574 0.080703
2025-08-17 0.004925 0.007927 0.012557 0.020253 0.032808 0.052624 0.086561
2025-08-24 0.004603 0.007608 0.012367 0.020494 0.034124 0.056246 0.095239
2025-08-31 0.004242 0.007187 0.011971 0.020349 0.034775 0.058812 0.102349
2025-09-07 0.004042 0.007014 0.011958 0.020834 0.036509 0.063302 0.113121
2025-09-14 0.003636 0.006460 0.011269 0.020111 0.036121 0.064177 0.117711
2025-09-21 0.003349 0.006088 0.010862 0.019849 0.036522 0.066466 0.125072
2025-09-28 0.003030 0.005629 0.010259 0.019172 0.036097 0.067208 0.129590
2025-10-05 0.002939 0.005580 0.010389 0.019856 0.038253 0.072867 0.143980
2025-10-12 0.002827 0.005481 0.010414 0.020339 0.040061 0.078013 0.157824
2025-10-19 0.002739 0.005419 0.010504 0.020950 0.042164 0.083889 0.173662
2025-10-26 0.002568 0.005178 0.010229 0.020812 0.042753 0.086814 0.183694
2025-11-02 0.002425 0.004982 0.010023 0.020795 0.043580 0.090278 0.195156
2025-11-09 0.002256 0.004719 0.009665 0.020429 0.043645 0.092165 0.203386
2025-11-16 0.002162 0.004605 0.009598 0.020671 0.045017 0.096902 0.218288
2025-11-23 0.002038 0.004416 0.009361 0.020525 0.045532 0.099835 0.229403